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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still