Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
