Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
